First XL swell for the Hawaiian season (updated)

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Analysis

The switch in swell seasons has begun in earnest with the focus shifting away from Indonesia to the Northern Hemisphere and namely Hawaii.

A couple of large swells have already arrived across the North Shore in recent days, but this coming Friday and Saturday, we'll see the first XL swell of the season impacting the islands.

This swell will develop from one of my favourite sources, that being the remnants of a strong typhoon, making an extra-tropical transition and then re-intensifying with a fresh infeed of cold air.

Late last week Typhoon Lan formed off the Philippine coast, intensifying significantly as it moved north towards Japan, reaching Super Typhoon strength before weakening as it crossed Honshu (Japan's Southern Island).

Below is some amazing satellite imagery captured of the eye of Super Typhoon Lan at its strongest.

The remnants of ST Lan have since moved north-east, making an extra-tropical transition which sees the storm transform from warm core to cold core while also seeing the strongest winds within the storm shifting from the surface to the upper atmosphere.

This transition combined with the injection of cold air from a low moving off Siberia is resulting in the formation of a significant weather system directly east of Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula.

The current forecast has an expansive fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds creating an active sea state for stronger storm-force to possibly hurricane-force winds to move over, resulting in the formation of an XL long-period NW groundswell.

The long-period forerunners should be up around 23-24s due to the strong peak wind speeds within the storm, arriving overnight Thursday, with the bulk of the groundswell due to fill in Friday afternoon. We should see sets building to the 15-20ft* range across selected breaks on the North Shore under fresh E/NE trades, easing from 15ft early Saturday.

The timing of the swell won't be ideal for the Peahi Challenge, with it only really ramping up in size across Maui through the afternoon.

Red Bull are however running a women’s big wave event at Waimea Bay this year - the waiting period started 1st October and ends 21st of November. They've just put the event on alert, with a final call due to be made tomorrow.

(Update)

There's been an upgrade in the expected size from 15ft to 15-20ft off this system with the storm projecting more ideally towards Hawaii through today. We're now expecting big wave spots and outer reefs on the North Shore to reach 15-20ft by dark Friday, easing back through Saturday from 15ft. A strong upwards trend isn't expected until early-mid afternoon at Jaws (Peahi), showing strongest right on dusk and then peaking overnight. The trend will be slowly down throughout Saturday but the biggest waves are likely to occur overnight Friday.

North Shore Hawaii 16 Day Forecast Graph
North Shore Hawaii WAMs

Comments

pittsy's picture
pittsy's picture
pittsy Tuesday, 24 Oct 2017 at 3:05pm

The sunset QS also start on the 27th should make for pretty epic viewing

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Tuesday, 24 Oct 2017 at 4:04pm

Hi Craig

At what size does a swell in Hawaii go from L to XL?

Reason I ask is because you’re only forecasting it to be 15ft when they can get swells in the 40ft + range.
It would almost just be a “solid” swell wouldn’t it, not XL?
I could be way off with my thinking, just curious. Cheers

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Tuesday, 24 Oct 2017 at 4:07pm

Looking forward to this answer...

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Tuesday, 24 Oct 2017 at 7:57pm

You back on the Islands program this year ?

Don't see the attraction myself - every top pro plus the thousand industry Bros stinking the joint up.

Is there still soul and untrammelled pits left on Oahu ?

I suppose that the uninitiated would have the same perspective on modern day Indo , as a discussion between Inzider and myself would attest.

If there's one thing I've realised after an extended period on the East coast of Oz , it's that the surf lulls you into a tepid miasma of existence *. Despite what the owners of 9'6" guns in Sydney would have you believe.

I'm on the North coast and getting fun , uncrowded waves often , but something is missing.

To myself , surfing is more than just fun. It's a challenge and the waves here are not challenging or exiting 90 percent of the time. You'll come in from a surf blissed out on the beautiful conditions and stoked on a turn or two, Maybe a little barrel . But nothing that reallly muscles it's way into the memory bank .

It's all fun . Inconsequential, unremarkable fun.

The sort of fun that anyone from any other country would dream about , but for those that eat it for breakfast , lunch and dinner it becomes a bit bland .

To me anyway.

*Thanks to the Rifles for the line .

Even though their line ain't exactly the same

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Tuesday, 24 Oct 2017 at 5:25pm

I got there on Boxing Day and stayed till about the end of Jan.
Hardly a pro to be seen. (Although I was hoping to see JJF in the surf every day)
Had some epic quiet days at sunset, small Waimea aka pinballs, rocky point. Also Haleiwa was pretty quiet and pumping.
Had a pushy and stayed just near pipe and rode around everywhere to have a surf.
I hate crowds, I can’t hassle or deal with it at all so I was wondering how I’d go but it was such a good surf trip. I’d give my left nut to be back there tomorrow

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Tuesday, 24 Oct 2017 at 7:00pm

Only going for a short while at the start of February. There's a small crew, all from around here, one guy I know really well, the others I just know. All good fellas, and all have done some time over there. We met briefly the other night and it seemed everyone has got the hairy-chested intensity that marks early Hawaiian trips out of their system. Comes with age, I guess.

I'll be glad just to reacquaint myself with Sunset, though I'm also curious if I get the big wave spark the same way I did in the past. A lot has changed, motivations are different, so I really don't know.

But if I do get proper amped again then I'm gonna put it together for the next season and stay for a while.

Also, it's turgid not tepid.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Tuesday, 24 Oct 2017 at 7:18pm

What part of the North coast "roughly", blowin? If you're between Byron and the goldy, I feel your pain. But there are a couple of chunkier options further south during east and ese swells. Mind you they get crowded these days, and the locals have it pretty wired.
And believe it or not, the sunny coast has some heavy reefs... It's just they are a bit of a rarity.
However when they DO crank, they are epic.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 24 Oct 2017 at 4:12pm

Thanks Stu!

It's subjective and we've picked 15ft and over as the XL cut-off, while we've got XXL from 30ft upwards I'm pretty sure (don't quote me on that).

15ft being 30ft faces is pretty bloddy big IMO.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Tuesday, 24 Oct 2017 at 4:17pm

Cheers Craig,

I thought it may have been something along those lines..

Yeah 15ft is a big swell for sure, for east coast Oz it’s massive... but for Da Islands not so much

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 24 Oct 2017 at 4:14pm

Also, Pat Caldwell has provided a great analysis of the coming swell..

"Super typhoon Lan became extra-tropical east of the Kuril Islands 10/23. Models show the center moving rapidly NNE to near the western Aleutians late Monday with central pressure dropping below 940 mb on Tuesday. The low is then predicted to track east along the Aleutians, east of the Date Line Wednesday and NE of the Hawaii swell window as it weakens by Thursday.

A long fetch of storm- to hurricane-force winds are modelled to set up from near Kamchatka to near the Date Line north of 40N with seas building above 40 feet. As the pattern approaches the Date Line, the more west-to-east surface winds would aim less towards Hawaii. The head of the fetch should reach about 1800 nm away on Wednesday.

Wave Watch III model, WW3, shows rare, extra-long-period forerunners greater than 25 seconds filling near dusk Thursday. The event should be filled in by Friday morning from 315-330 degrees with continued exceptionally long wave periods of 18-23 seconds. Wave energy is proportional to wave period, thus the surf is expected to be powerful. Fine-tuning on the explicit surf heights can be made once the event unfolds and satellites for ocean surface winds and waves provides guidance.

The event of Friday should reach extra-large levels, which refers to breakers high enough to trip on deep outer reefs, which tend to hold the maximum size. Heights should trend down below extra- large yet remain above average on Saturday from 315-330 degrees."

Richy's picture
Richy's picture
Richy Tuesday, 24 Oct 2017 at 8:12pm

surely a 15 foot swell would translate to 40 foot wave faces hitting magnets

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Tuesday, 24 Oct 2017 at 6:02pm

Goofy any tips for close to beach accomodation...cabin or granny flat etc.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Tuesday, 24 Oct 2017 at 6:26pm

Back packers is down the Waimea end.
I was there for a bit then stayed at a place near shark cove/pipe ( more centralised) which I just saw on Craigslist that a guy was advertising to rent a room of his house out. Both pretty much across the road from the beach. I’d probably stay closer to the sunset end if I went back

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg Tuesday, 24 Oct 2017 at 8:17pm

I remember shitting myself before my first island trip and found it way more chilled than I imagined. Plenty of waves outside of main places, crowds not too bad and the more times you go the better it gets for accom and getting yourself set up. Highly recommend later in the season...Feb/Mar is the go!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 24 Oct 2017 at 8:34pm

I've got a total different take on Oahu.

After reading and seeing so much of the place in my early youth, to then do a day trip around the island on the way to Alaska, it was a big let down.

This was late March, and the crowds were out in force from Pipe to Rocky Point and it was only 4ft. Pipe wasn't even breaking and there were 20-30 out, Rocky Point looked super fun but busy and every break in between had people on it.

We had a great body surf at Ke Ike beach though.

The amount of homeless, derelict properties and tent cities behind every sand dune on the south-west shore was unnerving and then a quick stop over through Wahiawa and turn down a quite suburban street revealed gangs and sketchy crew (dangerous enough to not want to exit the car in any situation).

The North Shore also appeared dirty with old sea dogs checking bins one after the other for bottles, even though the guy just before them had done the same thing.

Maybe I got it on a bad day, but I'd never book a holiday to Oahu. The other islands look amazing, Kauai especially and I'd make an effort to visit them, but Oahu just didn't get off on the right foot at all.

On the way back we had a night layover and headed to Waikiki. Again the whole hi-rise hotel scene reminiscent of the Gold Coast was off-putting and to see how some of the men were acting in the clubs was quite a shock. No redeeming features.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 25 Oct 2017 at 6:12am

Heavy action from Lan in Japan..

 

Today’s-Sendai JAPAN- Best drop & Best wipeout #thisisjapan @keito_matsuoka @zakkyturbo

A post shared by Satoshi Namba (@deltaforcesurf) on

Tim Bonython's picture
Tim Bonython's picture
Tim Bonython Thursday, 26 Oct 2017 at 8:01am

I heard the WSL are in a big meeting this arvo, working out how much money there going to loose if they didn't run it as the winds have turned to shit. I know a lot of the surfers here at Nazare are flew out yesterday & today. (and tomorrow if it ending up going)

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 26 Oct 2017 at 8:03am

Winds last night looked suss but this morning all models are in alignment for light E'ly offshore winds Saturday morning, tending moderate E/NE-NE through the afternoon.

When the swell kicks later Friday winds are a bit onshore but without too much strength from the NE-N/NE.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Thursday, 26 Oct 2017 at 9:49am

I reckon winds look workable. A weak trough passing to the east the region today are bringing temporarily moderate to fresh northerlies (onshore) but they'll ease steadily and by Friday morning should be only light to moderate at best, tending variable through the afternoon (as the new swell starts to really kick in).

Saturday looks OK at this stage with light variable winds - certainly an outside chance for onshores at times - but likely no great strength. And for large waves, a light onshore is often more preferable anyway as there's no wind pushing up the face. 

Stu2d2's picture
Stu2d2's picture
Stu2d2 Thursday, 26 Oct 2017 at 11:15am

Amazing to think we talked about this typhoon 3 weeks ago for the Phillipines... amazing system all round.

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Thursday, 26 Oct 2017 at 12:27pm

Gary also finds the XL / XXL thing confusing and difficult to relate to the globally accepted standard for measurement of wave heights: the Gary.

The Gary's proportions are perfect: and as such are considered to be XXL in some areas but only XL elsewhere.

Gary appreciates that the islands like to measure things a little differently, but this should not come at the expense of quantitative measurement so he'd propose that 1 Gary 'Hawaiian Style' is known as 1 Laird.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Thursday, 26 Oct 2017 at 2:20pm

Does Gary measure from the back or front?

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Thursday, 26 Oct 2017 at 4:26pm

Gary has found that one only appreciates the full set of The Gary's dimensions, including the girth, when viewing from side on.

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer Thursday, 26 Oct 2017 at 10:53pm

I just love surfing the north shore and the whole relaxed vibe to me its my favourite
surfing destination. Even the law and order I like is refreshing if you are respectful and
chilled so are the locals. Sure you might not get the absolute best set waves at first but
give it time and you will score infact I feel that Hawaiins in general are the friendliest locals
pretty much anywhere. Its really not that crowded. This does not include pipeline naturally
as that place is a gladiator pit and a lot of nasties there. Yes there is a bad underbelly but I
keep a very low profile and show ultimate respect and its paradise. Im leaving for Hawaii on the 25th Dec for a month with family in tow and we are counting down the days.
Portugal is pretty damn good as well.

Detox's picture
Detox's picture
Detox Friday, 27 Oct 2017 at 7:18am

How come you dont show the same respect in Australia?

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer Friday, 27 Oct 2017 at 8:41am

Detox big statement and obviousIy dont know me. Australia quite simply there
is generally little respect anywhere (locals rule).I also keep a low profile anywhere
I go here and I sometimes dont even catch a wave. For instance on more than one
occasion( Gold Coast ) in four hours hadnt caught a wave and just let myself get
washed in. I find it here show respect you dont get threatened but you wont get
many waves. In Hawaii in time they give you waves and that place gets invaded
by more blowins than in other surf destination on the planet.
Except Pipeline wont go near there. Locals will eat you.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Friday, 27 Oct 2017 at 8:44am

Respek