Winter 2015 wrap

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Analysis

Well what a mixed season of waves that was!

Depending on where you are around the country, this winter you either had to rest the body from jelly arms, or the quiver was left mostly untouched, pulled out on the odd occasion when the waves looked remotely surfable.

Starting from the top, the Surf Coast in Victoria had a standout winter, offering non-stop swell and offshore winds through most of the season with some larger days thrown in the mix. On the other hand, the Mornington Peninsula was mostly too large and messy.

When the Surf Coast pumps, the Victor Harbor region in South Australia usually does too as it likes the same swell patterns and winds. There were plenty of solid days out at Waits, with the reefs along the Chiton Rocks stretch also firing up at times.

The Mid Coast had a below average year with the storm track sitting too far south to generate any decent westerly swells, and any swell that did arrive was accompanied by generally onshore winds.

This flows on to the average season Western Australia had. It seems the 'swell of the decade' used up all the season's energy and favourable winds in one shot, with below average swell activity and dicey winds the story of the winter. Perth and Mandurah were clean for the most part, but with no decent swells.

Sydney and surrounds saw relentless, moderate pulses of southerly swell, which is fine if you've got a good bank at a south facing beach up your sleeve, but mostly it went to waste. Newcastle however raked in every bit of size, with one of the best winters on record as persistent offshore winds groomed the incoming southerly swell to perfection.

It took until the last week of winter for southern NSW to see any hint of easterly swell, and this provided the more memorable sessions of an otherwise lacklustre winter.

Northern NSW saw the same persistent southerly swells with workable winds across the point breaks, giving it an average pass mark, rather than anything special or above average.

Once past the Tweed River, the southerly swell was mostly useless across Queensland. While the sand across the points is in prime shape, only a couple of bigger southerly swells saw these come to life, with small to tiny surf padding out most of the winter, giving it a below average score.

Southern Tasmania saw all the swell that Victoria copped providing plenty of action in the South Arm and countless sessions at Shippies, while the protected East Coast only offered a couple of decent days all winter.

Feel free to add your recollections in the comments below.

Comments

yocal's picture
yocal's picture
yocal Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 1:48pm

Worst winter I can remember in SE Queensland. I hung out after a slow autumn for a June ECL to much disappointment, then thought July would at least produce something, then got to the end of August hoping for a late start and i still haven't wet my 7'0 all year.

comparing year on year... El Nino 2015 gets a thumbs down.

memlasurf's picture
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memlasurf Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 2:00pm

Craig it was friggin cold in Victoria though. Coldest winter in 20 years I think.

Craig's picture
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Craig Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 2:03pm

Yeah coldest in 26 years looking at Melbourne's average.

Again linked to El Nino, clearer/colder nights.

smac12's picture
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smac12 Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 2:11pm

Any differences in the water temp average though? I've been kicking the 3/2 down here for the last couple winters, chilly but not unbearable and this year hasn't seemed particularly worse.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 2:17pm

I saw that Port Phillip Bay was coldest in a long time, but this shows Victorian waters around the same, if not a touch cooler than normal.

memlasurf's picture
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memlasurf Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 4:08pm

Your tougher than me I am full 3/4 flash bomb with hood and booties. I was toastie although my fingers are cold until they go numb then all is good. Gloves next year maybe? I don't think water temp is any different however Westernport is freezing due to the freshwater going into it and the bay is ridiculous. I know one of those icebergers who dive in at Brighton in the rocker poppers. Nuts and no nuts when they get out.

Craig's picture
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Craig Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 4:15pm

Yeah when I was down there end of May I was in a 4/3 and booties. Couldn't do a 3/2 ever through winter!

Chicinho's picture
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Chicinho Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 5:39pm

Survived it in a 3/2 as well. Some days though called for the 2mm Syncro to be worn underneath but feet were never too bad until around the 2 hour mark!

rob tas's picture
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rob tas Friday, 4 Sep 2015 at 10:57am

gloves (2mm) were the find of the season in tas (store sold out i heard). keeping that extremity from freezing helped overall and a couple of 2-3 hour sessions followed

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf Friday, 4 Sep 2015 at 11:00am

Thanks for the tip. Definitely look into it for next season.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Saturday, 5 Sep 2015 at 9:40pm

Very good winter all round on the Surf Coast and way too cold for anyone north of the Murray. The weekend warriors scored super consistent waves. Apart from the cold, the only negative was the lack of anything in the BIG range. It would have been an all time winter if we got a few of those days when the flappers get raked across the button and head up the Winki stairs with their tails between their legs. whipped.

davetherave's picture
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davetherave Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 2:07pm

yocal is spot on, rating was not below average, new rating, officially shithouse, not even body surfable most of the time-but a bit down the coast-amazing compared to d-bah to flatrock

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 2:10pm

In the Illawarra winter started with a week of great waves and ended the same way, in between was mostly humdrum mid-range south swell. Though can't complain after reading the accounts from Goldy folk above. Can't remember more than a few days in a row that I couldn't surf.

The biggest swell of the year was still late January. Nothing has topped it yet. See photo below by Clarrie Bouma at sandonpointphotos.com:

dsc02699.jpeg

geoffrey's picture
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geoffrey Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 7:46pm

nice photo!. i think your being a bit harsh mate, id say that this winter has been a good notch above average in the illawarra. not all time but a b+ from me. who knows, maybe all the good days revolved around my shift pattern for once.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Friday, 4 Sep 2015 at 8:26am

Maybe I was. Thing is, while surfing the point last Wednesday it hit me that this was the biggest swell of the winter - and it really wasn't that big. So I guess I marked it down 'cos of a lack of a knockout swell.

That said, a steady diet of mid-range swells is a good thing, especially when the banks are in order, as they were at Thirroul for 4-5 weeks of winter. Just beatiful channels and scallops turning what is usually shutdown material into lovely rip bowls and walls.

Yeah, it was alright.

However, like Oiley, I'm looking forward to a swing to the east and north.

mibs-oner's picture
mibs-oner's picture
mibs-oner Friday, 4 Sep 2015 at 9:31pm

definitely below average here. Still tonnes of bazzas but less then a hand full of drop everything and surf right now moments

oiley's picture
oiley's picture
oiley Friday, 4 Sep 2015 at 7:52am

yeah it was an ok winter for Illawarra I reckon, but a lot of driving around often required - looking forward to some east swell again though

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 2:20pm

The Northern Beaches winter was terrible (still surfed most days but). As touched on above, relentless south swells that were the end of me. Last two weeks have been great fun.

Every weekend trekked out of town and scored super fun waves with hardly any crowds, kept me sane.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 2:33pm

Bit more than a pass mark Craig.

Super shallow sand and consistent small-mid sized swells with good winds saw day after day of high quality Point surf.

I'd give it a 7.5. All it really lacked was a killer swell. First two weeks in June and 9 Aug came close.
What it lacked in size it sure made up for in quality and consistency.

Also, a lot of really good surf went unridden because of the shark situation here.

yocal's picture
yocal's picture
yocal Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 4:08pm

Good sand may be testament to the lack of storm swells? I haven't seen it with my own eyes but apparently currumbin has become less of a rivermouth and more of a sandspit/sand dune!!

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 3:06pm

Mid May was the last decent run of swell here. Looking at my tracker, June had 2 good days, July none, August 2 good days, and that's still nothing over 3ft really. Bad el nino bad!

stunet's picture
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stunet Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 3:16pm

Where are you Sprout?

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 3:22pm

Lake Eucumbene I think.
Shit sprout that's bad.

Sprout's picture
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Sprout Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 3:40pm

Haha, almost, Sunny Coast mate. I know further North had a few more good days but overall still a terrible winter. Having said that, I whinged on here yesterday and this afternoon finally had a mad little hour of waves. Perhaps I should complain more often.

rees0's picture
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rees0 Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 8:17pm

how did your end fare sprout? surfed beachy round the airport was fun whilst the tide was still in but dropped quickly taking most decent rides with it.

Sprout's picture
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Sprout Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 9:10pm

Had some cracking waves come through around 2pm with only 4 people on the whole stretch was good fun. The best of it lasted about an hour then slowly died off.

mcsc's picture
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mcsc Friday, 4 Sep 2015 at 6:17pm

Sprout, you'd agree Sunny Coast hasn't seen waves over 4ft since May?

Thursday was a cracker though

Sprout's picture
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Sprout Saturday, 5 Sep 2015 at 10:13am

Definitely true for my stretch mate. The biggest was June 13, 3ftish+ but onshore slop.

thelostclimber's picture
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thelostclimber Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 3:17pm

Yep around here we aren't too fond of the large southerly swell. Beaches don't handle and points/reefs get super crowded Eg tuesday.
But wait for the next day with a bit less size and more easterly and it all comes together eg wednesday.
Unlike some other winters with long flat spells, there hasn't been a more than 5 or 6 days when the surf has been unridable. Pretty good winter really if you can get time out on a weekday. Got pretty damn cold in the middle there (for Sydney).
looking forward to some more NE action now.

carpetman's picture
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carpetman Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 3:34pm

Surfcoast El Nino review; One thumb up for wave quality but one thumb down for crowd quantity.

memlasurf's picture
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memlasurf Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 4:11pm

Craig why are south swells so nasty for Sidenee?

Craig's picture
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Craig Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 4:14pm

Well only south facing beaches pick up any real size, and the banks at the ones I've been sussing have generally been too straight (besides a couple of swells). Then the other open beaches which are smaller just see endless close-outs. Just super frustrating, and if there's a bank, everyone knows about it.

Cronulla deals better with the south swells, but their bank situation was dire at the start of winter. Has improved now.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 4:33pm

thats a problem seeing as the prevailing swell direction in winter is from the southern quadrant

Craig's picture
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Craig Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 4:38pm

Usually though we get an ECL or lingering Tasman Low resulting in more SE and E/SE swells, but not one this winter at all.

Besides a week of great but inconsisten SE groundswell from below New Zealand and then the E'ly swell from the ECL last week, it's been mind numbing south pulses.

mibs-oner's picture
mibs-oner's picture
mibs-oner Friday, 4 Sep 2015 at 9:35pm

This winter the every swell over 1.5m seemed to have been extremely south. 170-190 degrees was heaps common on the port buoy. Less East in all the swells but also a lot less se Devils winds too.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 4:44pm

Not a problem at Cronulla. Five world class reefs, all aligned for variations of southerly swell.

Cylinders85's picture
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Cylinders85 Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 4:39pm

Yes allready stated qld has had a shit house season. Summer better look after us.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 4:40pm

Brocky by the fire as another unridden one rifles off down the inside.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 4:42pm

Glorious!

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 4:51pm

yeah, only problem is whitey liked cruising between the sandbar and the Point in super shallow water. Hence, no-one out.

toneranger's picture
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toneranger Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 6:33pm

yep,spot on about s.a. absolutely cracking early winter,and all on the weekends.even on the more solid swells had a couple of smokin banks at day st. now that's a good winter.

wingnut2443's picture
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wingnut2443 Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 6:49pm

Nice way to keep the crowds at bay FR76 ... Like you, my winter has been filled with waves due to sand, reading conditions and surfing tides. Flexible work schedule has help achieve a fair run of fun waves. I'd go 7, maybe 7.5 too ... couple of 8+ days in there, and only one long period of nothing that I can remember but I do try to block out the bad and remember the good ;)

wellymon's picture
wellymon's picture
wellymon Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 9:36pm

Was fu$ken awesome where I suerfed every time, 2ft -4ft the odd 6ft with not many people.
Classic stuff, a boat helps and some cross winds, early morn offs and a week day usually wednesdays.......
Everyone has to suck it up and take it on the chin, make the most out of every surf. A good fire to warm the bones is always a must, but only Bear Grilles can do that with a motley crew.
I loved it....

blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 9:42pm

It has been an unusual winter on the northern beaches. There really aren't many reliable south swell locations and those dependent on sand tend to get worse the longer the swell stays that way. We have had all these mid-range swells one after another closing out most beaches. If you had nothing else to do you could probably have scored reasonable waves most days by scouting around and picking the best bank and tide but most people I suspect are pretty bored with 3ft peaks that look good until they hit the bank then just straighten out and shut down. One of the issues has been that most of the swell has had a longish period when most beaches are actually better with more localised shorter period stuff as it breaks up the long lines and creates peaks.
The upside is that if you have been prepared to sit it out and wait for the odd runner, the crowds have been thinner and if there has been a flat spell since March, I must have slept through it!

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Friday, 4 Sep 2015 at 6:38am

Exactly BB, and that long period stuff was just glorious up here. Lots of days felt more like Indo than the East Coast; a three foot wave with long period on a ruler edged shallow sandbar punched well above it's weight compared to the normal shorter period stuff. Long periods, well defined sets, no longshore current from the normal Tasman sea lows. It was deluxe but with a bit much time spent looking over your shoulder on the paddle back out watching for one of the Ballina 7 and hoping the chopper wouldn't start circling over you while you were sitting out back.

Anyhow, looks like it's going to be a long painful summer so memories, misty melancholy memories is all we'll have of the season of the shark. What a strange winter it was.

batfink's picture
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batfink Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 10:37pm

This winter for east coast has lacked the killer south swell to really smash the sandbanks around. The swells have been consistent but most beaches from well south of Sydney to Hunter have been shit due to consistent south swells just creating a straight ledge that means most beaches have just been a waste.

We had the big stormy in May for Newcastle to Wollongong, which worked wonders to the banks for a while, but it has gone back to straighthanders which seem to have been there for ages.

Those absolute smashing 3-4 day events haven't come, and that has led to crap banks, north side, eastern beaches and well south.

But there has been plenty of swell, just not many places that can do anything with it.

batfink's picture
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batfink Thursday, 3 Sep 2015 at 10:39pm

Craig and I were down south on the same weekend recently. Wish I was down there now as the incredible rains last week would have opened up some creeks and they would have mixed up the bank formation. Would be really interested to hear how it's going at any of the south coast NSW spots that have a creek/rivermouth opening.

gene's picture
gene's picture
gene Friday, 4 Sep 2015 at 6:51am

There has been a couple of days down south at the rivers that have been top to bottom tube fests with half a handful of guys out.Yesterday was as good as i have seen at my local waterway.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 4 Sep 2015 at 7:06am

Yes, heard that E/SE groundswell from New Zealand offered 6ft sets down there! Pumping.

How's the snow melt out the rivers though, super cold?

gene's picture
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gene Friday, 4 Sep 2015 at 7:28am

nah not too bad.More the Westerlies, they keep it crispy.Keeps out the weak of heart away

Sup_steez's picture
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Sup_steez Friday, 4 Sep 2015 at 7:00am

Yes, Newcastle pumped all season! actually all year we have had great waves.
Usually Newy main is really bad with the straight south swells, however we had some good banks in the south end which was uncrowded.
Nobby's provided some real quality as well, i almost dusted off the boog for some reef action (and probably should of done), however we didn't have a quality SE swell for my favourite SUP reef, i really feel as if the next 6 weeks will deliver more quality on the swell department, not so much with the winds.

mikehunt207's picture
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mikehunt207 Friday, 4 Sep 2015 at 9:58am

Bit harsh on the WA summary, we,ve had a pretty good winter in the south west. Not much big surf but heaps clean offshores and consistant smaller but high period swells, at least a couple days a week thru most winter it seemed, although that = fuck all surf for Perth and not much up north I imagine, (getting stories back of nw trips and no surf at all or days of surfing turtles and not much on points). Nw shite today although report seems to think its offshore?

groundswell's picture
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groundswell Friday, 4 Sep 2015 at 12:50pm

Yep Mike, not that good up here for the last half of winter. Some might disagree as I don't know all the spots and did get lazy with surf checks.
I'm on the mid north west, gero coast. Scored Jakes only a couple of times and for others the wind or tides were wrong a lot of the time.
It seems a certain beach I was excited about and another novelty spot both prefer summer tides and sand conditions.
Rarely below belly to chest high though at magnets...even forecasts rarely less than 3ft or 4ft in a two week period.

evosurfer's picture
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evosurfer Friday, 4 Sep 2015 at 10:44pm

I cant remember if it was the worse winter for swell ever but it was up there.
No banks either for any dribble that might wonder thru and there certainly
isn't any wonderful reef breaks in the Cronulla area if there was swell.
All in all it was woeful.

groundswell's picture
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groundswell Saturday, 5 Sep 2015 at 8:43am

Shark island not wonderful? I'd rate it as just about better than anything else in Australia, cronulla is reefbreak rich. Or do you mean they weren't working?

evosurfer's picture
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evosurfer Saturday, 5 Sep 2015 at 3:36pm

No I mean there is no good reefs in Cronulla so may as well look for good waves
somewhere else.
Stu keeps on mentioning great reefs in Cronulla. WRONG
Shark Island is a myth.

stunet's picture
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stunet Saturday, 5 Sep 2015 at 9:56pm

evosurfer wrote:

No I mean there is no good reefs in Cronulla so may as well look for good waves somewhere else. Stu keeps on mentioning great reefs in Cronulla. WRONG Shark Island is a myth.

Ha ha ha...I can say that now that I've left.

cycd's picture
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cycd Monday, 7 Sep 2015 at 7:57am

I don't agree with WA having an average winter (in the SW anyway)... Swell hasn't been pulsing but the winds have been epic down south, days of offshores. Up North has been terrible... Especially after last winter

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Monday, 7 Sep 2015 at 10:04am

What a winter it was. Just pumping repeatedly. Last 2 weeks a little more ordinary down here. Spaghetti arms moments, caught inside moments, joy big takeoffs , turns, racing sections, turning under tubes. Boards going so fast the fins began to buzz. And then the snow, magnificent in early August, some of the best I've ridden here.

And there were moments with 3 of us out, (not so) far from the maddening crowd. Same for the snow, a few runs without so much as a wombat footprint with a small cover to float the board on. I did enjoy allthe trolling comments on every one of the Forecaster notes for this area though; poor Craig, he has the patience of a saint. But they were representative of crowd situations at times.

A highlight was watching a biggish onshore swell early in the season, 8'+ mash up the banks of a local spot, creating a wave that reminded me of some mid to NW WA. There were some mad sessions on this wave. But sadly it's bashed the banks out of Grom and my favourite reef/sand break which is now more dumpy. Roll on spring sessions :)

It was cold, but survived in 3/2 flashbomb and booties. 4/3 for next time. Now to prepare for the body bashing of summer. Vive le froid.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 7 Sep 2015 at 11:21am

Great to hear!

Glad I hit up that swell on the last weekend of autumn, A+ quality and epic that Saturday.

Yeah snow's come up nice, had another epic back country mission Saturday, was incredible, will posts shots in the snow thread.

wellymon's picture
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wellymon Monday, 7 Sep 2015 at 1:49pm
velocityjohnno wrote:

What a winter it was. Just pumping repeatedly. Last 2 weeks a little more ordinary down here. Spaghetti arms moments, caught inside moments, joy big takeoffs , turns, racing sections, turning under tubes. Boards going so fast the fins began to buzz. And then the snow, magnificent in early August, some of the best I've ridden here.

And there were moments with 3 of us out, (not so) far from the maddening crowd. Same for the snow, a few runs without so much as a wombat footprint with a small cover to float the board on. I did enjoy allthe trolling comments on every one of the Forecaster notes for this area though; poor Craig, he has the patience of a saint. But they were representative of crowd situations at times.

A highlight was watching a biggish onshore swell early in the season, 8'+ mash up the banks of a local spot, creating a wave that reminded me of some mid to NW WA. There were some mad sessions on this wave. But sadly it's bashed the banks out of Grom and my favourite reef/sand break which is now more dumpy. Roll on spring sessions :)

It was cold, but survived in 3/2 flashbomb and booties. 4/3 for next time. Now to prepare for the body bashing of summer. Vive le froid.

Good to hear, a great positive comment. Surf and frozen water;)

groundswell's picture
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groundswell Wednesday, 9 Sep 2015 at 2:46pm

the biggest problem on the mid coast has been the winds have been nne almost every morning, and past jakes to exmouth definitely less swell.

plasm's picture
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plasm Thursday, 10 Sep 2015 at 3:25pm

18 seconds mag via CW website calling 'one of the dreamiest winters the Gold Coast has seen in ten years.' They must live in a parallel universe...